The encouragement-design article on this blog worked out a single number: the undiluted effect of GIF exposure, recovered from a diluted ITT estimate by dividing out the exposure rate. This is the reference version — where that division actually comes from, and a full sensitivity table showing how much the answer moves as the exposure rate changes...
Restating the Problem
Overall, control (GIFs on) outperformed treatment (GIFs off) on the guardrail metric, but control mixes users who actually saw a GIF card with users who didn't...